Vol. 36 No. 2 (2024)
Articles

How “real” is mobility from tem- porary to permanent employment in Italy? A focus on measurement error

Roberta Varriale
Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
Danila Filipponi
Directorate for Methodology and Statistical Process Design, Italian Institute of Statistics - ISTAT, Rome, Italy
Mauricio Garnier-Villarreal
Department of Sociology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Dimitris Pavlopoulos
Department of Sociology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Published 2024-12-24

Keywords

  • Hidden Markov model,
  • Latent variable model,
  • Employment career,
  • Measurement error

How to Cite

Varriale, R., Filipponi, D., Garnier-Villarreal, M., & Pavlopoulos, D. (2024). How “real” is mobility from tem- porary to permanent employment in Italy? A focus on measurement error. Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, 36(2), 143–170. https://doi.org/10.26398/IJAS.272

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the effect of measurement error on mobility between different employment types in Italy. For this purpose, we apply a hidden Markov model with two independent indicators for the employment category (permanent contract, temporary contract, self-employed, not employed). The model takes into account that both sources may not be error-free as well as that measurement error may be correlated over time. The two indicators come from ISTAT administrative data and the Labour Force Survey from 2017 to 2021, linked at the individual level. The results show that neither source can be considered error-free and that measurement error may severely bias mobility between employment states.