Investment returns from hybrid poplar plantations in northern Italy between 2001 and 2016: are we losing a bio-based segment of the primary economy?

Abstract

This work estimated financial returns at aggregate level from hybrid poplar plantations in northern Italy between 2001 and 2016. The results suggest that poplar can represent one of the most profitable investments among forest plantations in Europe, although the range of potential returns is rather large, including negative returns. The decrease of expected returns over the last 15 years has negatively undermined the attractiveness for new investments, increasing the market risk component. We also assessed the effects of external variables such as public subsidies, land cost, opportunity cost, and insurance cost. Land use and opportunity costs appear to be crucial variables, as well as public subsidies, which have undergone substantial changes over the period.