Policies and prospects for UK agriculture and rural areas after Brexit – navigating turbulent times at home and abroad

Abstract

This paper reflects on the Brexit process, impacts and influence upon UK agri-rural businesses, communities and policies. Tracing a timeline, we cover the stages of Brexit debate, development and implementation and note the complexity of identifying impacts against a turbulent external context. Impacts from new trade policy have been modest but negative, particularly for smaller agri-food and rural businesses, whilst impacts from changing agri-rural policies have diverged across the four nations of the UK, with the most dramatic changes in England. Significant uncertainty remains around the future evolution of UK agri-rural policies and trading relations with Europe. We see a risk of reduced political attention towards farming, food production and rural development, notably in England but also in the UK policies led from London which affect farming and rural areas including trade, taxation and migration. At the same time, interest in agri-rural policies across Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland seems likely to remain strong. We suggest this imbalance is unwise for a country which is strongly committed to a successful climate transition, where careful management of UK land and agri-rural resources will become ever more critical, in the years ahead.