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Structural and informational absences in irrigation data: a Bayesian zero-inflated approach applied to Minas Gerais, Brazil

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  • Angel dos Santos Fachinelli Ferrarini
Angel dos Santos Fachinelli Ferrarini
Federal University of São Carlos
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/rea-17053

Published 2026-05-20

Keywords

  • irrigation,
  • governance,
  • allocation,
  • institutional barriers

How to Cite

dos Santos Fachinelli Ferrarini, A. (2026). Structural and informational absences in irrigation data: a Bayesian zero-inflated approach applied to Minas Gerais, Brazil. Italian Review of Agricultural Economics. https://doi.org/10.36253/rea-17053

Copyright (c) 2026 Angel dos Santos Fachinelli Ferrarini

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Abstract

Minas Gerais is Brazil’s second-largest state in terms of irrigated area, with expansion potential exceeding 1 million hectares. Yet 16% of municipalities reported no irrigation in 2019, revealing a paradox between potential and local absence. This study investigates the determinants of irrigation absence using a Bayesian zero-inflated model with a truncated Student’s t-distribution. The results indicate that the baseline probability of a structural zero is approximately 12%, but this probability decreases to 4% in municipalities located in the São Francisco Basin or those with potential irrigable area. In contrast, municipalities with agricultural gross value added below the state average show substantially higher probabilities of structural zeros (around 38%). In the extended specification, the interaction between basin location and potential irrigable area reduces the probability of structural zeros to about 1%, indicating a strong combined mitigating effect. By distinguishing structural from informational constraints, this study provides actionable insights for targeted policy interventions aimed at promoting sustainable and efficient irrigation expansion.

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