2024: Online First Manuscripts
Research Articles

Perceptions towards Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Adaptation Strategies: Case of the Zerafshan River Basin in Uzbekistan

Sherzod Babakholov
Samarkand agroinnovations and research university

Published 2024-09-04

Keywords

  • climate change,
  • agriculture,
  • adaptation,
  • water use

How to Cite

Babakholov, S. (2024). Perceptions towards Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Adaptation Strategies: Case of the Zerafshan River Basin in Uzbekistan. Italian Review of Agricultural Economics (REA). https://doi.org/10.36253/rea-15098

Abstract

Adapting to climate change under different agro-ecologies of Central Asian countries still remains a matter of debate. The present study aimed to explore the perceptions and key factors influencing adaptation strategies through the stepwise appraisal framework in upstream zones of the Zerafshan River Basin in Uzbekistan. First, a Severity Index (SI) was calculated to evaluate the perceptions of farmers towards climate change and water scarcity. Then, determinants of adaptation practices were investigated using a binary Logistic regression model with comprehensive farm-level survey data collected from 307 farmers. The highest value of the SI coefficient was attained for the perception “Water resource is getting scarce”, which implies that most farmers already have worries about the potential risk of water shortages although they have been operating with an adequate water supply. Education of household head, extension, and farmer’s perceptions on climate change and water were found to be positive determinants but land size and membership in agro-clusters were found to be negatively influenced factors to climate adaptation strategies. Therefore, we suggest policy implications to consider the land size, cooperation of farmers with clusters, extension, and water management systems to increase the resilience of farmers against climate change at national level.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

References

  1. Abid M., Scheffran J., Schneider U.A., Ashfaq M. (2015). Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: The case of Punjab province, Pakistan. Earth System Dynamics, 6(1): 225-243. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015.
  2. Adimassu Z., Langan S., Johnston R. (2016). Understanding determinants of farmers’ investments in sustainable land management practices in Ethiopia: review and synthesis. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 18(4): 1005-1023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-015-9683-5.
  3. Aleksandrova M., Gain A.K., Giupponi C. (2016). Assessing agricultural systems vulnerability to climate change to inform adaptation planning: an application in Khorezm, Uzbekistan. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 21(8): 1263-1287. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9655-y.
  4. Alemayehu A., Bewket W. (2017a). Determinants of smallholder farmers’ choice of coping and adaptation strategies to climate change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Environmental Development, 24: 77-85. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2017.06.006.
  5. Alemayehu A., Bewket W. (2017b). Smallholder farmers’ coping and adaptation strategies to climate change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Local Environment, 22(7): 825-839. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2017.1290058.
  6. Ali A., Erenstein O. (2017). Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan. Climate Risk Management, 16: 183-194. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.12.001.
  7. Amfo B., Ali E.B. (2020). Climate change coping and adaptation strategies: How do cocoa farmers in Ghana diversify farm income? Forest Policy and Economics, 119, 102265. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102265.
  8. Arnell N.W., Brown S., Gosling S.N., Gottschalk P., Hinkel J., Huntingford C., Lloyd-Hughes B., Lowe J.A., Nicholls R.J., Osborn T.J., Osborne T.M., Rose G.A., Smith P., Wheeler T.R., Zelazowski P. (2016). The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment. Climatic Change, 134(3): 457-474. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2.
  9. Babakholov S., Bobojonov I., Hasanov S., Glauben T. (2022). An Empirical Assessment of the Interactive Impacts of Irrigation and Climate on Farm Productivity in Samarkand region, Uzbekistan. Environmental Challenges, 7, 100502. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2022.100502.
  10. Bobojonov I., Berg E., Franz-Vasdeki J., Martius C., Lamers J.P.A. (2016). Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan. Climate Risk Management, 13: 19-30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.05.004.
  11. Bolch T., Marchenko S. (2006). Significance of glaciers, rock glaciers, and ice-rich permafrost in the Northern Tien Shan as water towers under climate change conditions. Proceedings of the Workshop Assessment of Snow-Glacier and Water Resources in Asia, 199-211. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-137250.
  12. Bryan E., Ringler C., Okoba B., Roncoli C., Silvestri S., Herrero M. (2013). Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: Household strategies and determinants. Journal of Environmental Management, 114: 26-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.036.
  13. Delaporte I., Maurel M. (2018). Adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh. Climate Policy, 18(1): 49-62. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1222261.
  14. Deressa T.T., Hassan R.M., Ringler C., Alemu T., Yesuf M. (2009). Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 19(2): 248-255. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.002.
  15. Djanibekov U., Dzhakypbekova K., Chamberlain J., Weyerhaueser H., Zorner R., Villamor G., Xu J. (2015). Agroforestry for Landscape Restoration and Livelihood Development in Central Asia. 41. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5716/WP14143.
  16. Dougherty C., Dougherty C. (2011). Introduction to econometrics. Oxford University Press, USA. (Oxford Uni).
  17. Ferdushi K.F., Ismail M.T., Kamil A.A. (2019). Perceptions, knowledge and adaptation about climate change: A study on farmers of haor areas after a flash flood in Bangladesh. Climate, 7(7): 1-17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070085.
  18. Garschagen M., Romero-Lankao P. (2015). Exploring the relationships between urbanization trends and climate change vulnerability. Climatic Change, 133(1): 37-52. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0812-6.
  19. Gbetibouo G.A. (2009). Understanding farmers’ perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability: The case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa (Vol. 849). Intl Food Policy Res Inst. (IFPRI).
  20. GC A., Yeo J.H. (2020). Perception to Adaptation of Climate Change in Nepal: An Empirical Analysis Using Multivariate Probit Model. Sci, 2(4). DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/sci2040087.
  21. Gosling S.N., Arnell N.W. (2016). A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Climatic Change, 134(3): 371-385. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x.
  22. Hagg W., Hoelzle M., Wagner S., Mayr E., Klose Z. (2013). Glacier and runoff changes in the Rukhk catchment, upper Amu-Darya basin until 2050. Global and Planetary Change, 110: 62-73. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.05.005.
  23. Harris I., Jones P.D., Osborn T.J., Lister D.H. (2014). Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 34(3): 623-642.
  24. Hill A.F., Minbaeva C.K., Wilson A.M., Satylkanov R. (2017). Hydrologic controls and water vulnerabilities in the Naryn River Basin, Kyrgyzstan: A socio-hydro case study of water stressors in central Asia. Water (Switzerland), 9(5), 325. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w9050325.
  25. Huang J., Yu H., Guan X., Wang G., Guo R. (2016). Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 6(2): 166-171. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2837.
  26. IPCC (2014). Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www. ipcc. ch/site/assets/upl.
  27. Jones D.A., Hassan O.T. (1991). Climate change and agriculture. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 6(3): 101. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-5347(91)90186-2.
  28. Karimov B.K., Matthies M., Talskikh V., Plotsen M.A., Karimov E.B. (2019). Salinization of River Waters and Suitability of Electric Conductivity Value for Saving Freshwater from Salts in Aral Sea Basin. Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, 16(3): 109-114. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3233/AJW190039.
  29. Karthe D., Chalov S., Borchardt D. (2015). Water resources and their management in central Asia in the early twenty first century: status, challenges and prospects. Environmental Earth Sciences, 73(2): 487-499. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3789-1.
  30. Khujanazarov T., Ichikawa Y., Abdullaev I., Toderich K. (2012). Water Quality Monitoring and Geospatial Database Coupled with Hydrological Data of Zeravshan River Basin. 202: 199-202.
  31. Kulmatov R., Opp C., Groll M., Kulmatova D. (2013). Assessment of Water Quality of the Trans-Boundary Zarafshan River in the Territory of Uzbekistan. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 05(01): 17-26. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2013.51003.
  32. Laws R., Balance M. (2016). Central Asian Legal and Policy Responses to Climate Change * ◈ Contents ◈ Climate Change Impacts to Central Asia and Legal and Policy Responses, 26(2): 183-222.
  33. Lioubimtseva E., Henebry G.M. (2009). Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: Impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations. Journal of Arid Environments, 73(11): 963-977. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.04.022.
  34. Liu W., Liu L., Gao J. (2020). Adapting to climate change: gaps and strategies for Central Asia. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 25(8): 1439-1459. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09929-y.
  35. Majid M.A., McCaffer R. (1997). Assessment of work performance of maintenance contractors in Saudi Arabia. Discussion. Journal of Management in Engineering, 13(5). DOI: doi.10.1061/(ASCE)0742-597X(1997)13:5(91).
  36. Makate C., Makate M., Mango N., Siziba S. (2019). Increasing resilience of smallholder farmers to climate change through multiple adoption of proven climate-smart agriculture innovations. Lessons from Southern Africa. Journal of Environmental Management, 231: 858-868. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.069.
  37. Mendelsohn R. (2008). The impact of climate change on agriculture in developing countries. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 1(1): 5-19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19390450802495882.
  38. Mirzabaev A. (2013). Climate Volatility and Change in Central Asia: Economic Impacts and Adaptation. PhD Thesis. Agricultural Faculty, University of Bonn, urn:nbn:de.
  39. Mulwa C., Marenya P., Rahut D.B., Kassie M. (2017). Response to climate risks among smallholder farmers in Malawi: A multivariate probit assessment of the role of information, household demographics, and farm characteristics. Climate Risk Management, 16: 208-221. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.01.002.
  40. Mwongera C., Shikuku K.M., Twyman J., Läderach P., Ampaire E., Van Asten P., Twomlow S., Winowiecki L.A. (2017). Climate smart agriculture rapid appraisal (CSA-RA): A tool for prioritizing context-specific climate smart agriculture technologies. Agricultural Systems, 151: 192-203. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.009.
  41. Muratov S.A., Hasanov S.T., Kalandarov R., Kurbonov S.P., Usmanova A. (2023). Economic Assessment of the Influence of Innovations on Income from Household Activities in the Framework of Digital Economy. In Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Future Networks and Distributed Systems (pp. 33-41). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1145/3644713.3644719.
  42. Narama C., Kääb A., Duishonakunov M., Abdrakhmatov K. (2010). Spatial variability of recent glacier area changes in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia, using Corona (~ 1970), Landsat (~ 2000), and ALOS (~ 2007) satellite data. Global and Planetary Change, 71(1-2): 42-54. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.08.002.
  43. Nautiyal Snigdha S.K. (2022). The knowledge politics of capacity building for climate change at the UNFCCC. Climate Policy, 22: 576-592. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2042176.
  44. Ososkova T., Gorelkin N., Chub V. (2000). Water resources of Central Asia and adaptation measures for climate change. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 61(1): 161-166. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006394808699.
  45. Piya L., Maharjan K.L., Joshi N.P. (2013). Determinants of adaptation practices to climate change by Chepang households in the rural Mid-Hills of Nepal. Regional Environmental Change, 13(2): 437-447. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0359-5.
  46. Pritchard H.D. (2019). Asia’s shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress. Nature, 569(7758): 649-654. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1240-1.
  47. Punkari M., Droogers P., Immerzeel W., Korhonen N., Lutz A., Venäläinen A. (2014). Climate Change and Sustainable Water Management in Central Asia. ADB Central and West Asia Working Papers, 5. http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/projdocs/2014/44066-012-dpta-01.pdf.
  48. Radchenko I., Dernedde Y., Mannig B., Frede H.G., Breuer L. (2017). Climate change impacts on runoff in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia). Water Resources, 44(5): 707-730. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807817050098.
  49. Rahut D.B., Ali A. (2017). Coping with climate change and its impact on productivity, income, and poverty: Evidence from the Himalayan region of Pakistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 24: 515-525. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.05.006.
  50. Reyer C.P.O., Otto I.M., Adams S., Albrecht T., Baarsch F., Cartsburg M., Coumou D., Eden A., Ludi E., Marcus R. (2017). Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development. Regional Environmental Change, 17(6): 1639-1650. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0893-z.
  51. Salokhiddinov A., Boirov R., Ismailov M., Mamatov S., Khakimova P., Rakhmatullaeva M. (2020). Climate change effects on irrigated agriculture: Perspectives from agricultural producers in eastern Uzbekistan. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 612(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/612/1/012058.
  52. Schlaepfer D.R., Bradford J.B., Lauenroth W.K., Munson S.M., Tietjen B., Hall S.A., Wilson S.D., Duniway M.C., Jia G., Pyke D.A., Lkhagva A., Jamiyansharav K. (2017). Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils. Nature Communications, 8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/612/1/01205810.1038/ncomms14196.
  53. SCRUz (2022). The State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics. Tashkent.
  54. Seddon A.W.R., Macias-Fauria M., Long P.R., Benz D., Willis K.J. (2016). Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability. Nature, 531(7593): 229-232. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16986.
  55. Sherzod B. (2021). Climate Change Impacts and Agriculture: Empirical Evidence from Zarafshan River Basin, Uzbekistan. 9(2): 7-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1062/1151-1/131989.
  56. Sherzod B., Kim K.-R., Lee S.H. (2018). Agricultural transition and technical efficiency: An empirical analysis of wheat-cultivating farms in Samarkand Region, Uzbekistan. Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(9). DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093232.
  57. Siegfried T., Bernauer T., Guiennet R., Sellars S., Robertson A.W., Mankin J., Bauer-Gottwein P., Yakovlev A. (2012). Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia? Climatic Change, 112(3-4): 881-899. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0253-z.
  58. Smit B., Skinner M.W. (2002). Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: A typology. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 7(1): 85-114. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015862228270.
  59. Sommer R., Glazirina M., Yuldashev T., Otarov A., Ibraeva M., Martynova L., Bekenov M., Kholov B., Ibragimov N., Kobilov R., Karaev S., Sultonov M., Khasanova F., Esanbekov, M., Mavlyanov D., Isaev S., Abdurahimov S., Ikramov R., Shezdyukova L., de Pauw E. (2013). Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Central Asia. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 178: 78-99. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2013.06.011.
  60. Sorg A., Bolch T., Stoffel M., Solomina O., Beniston M. (2012). Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia). Nature Climate Change, 2(10): 725-731. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1592.
  61. Sutton W.R., Srivastava J.P., Neumann J.E. (2013). Looking beyond the horizon: How climate change impacts and adaptation responses will reshape agriculture in eastern Europe and central Asia. World Bank Publications. DOI: https://doi (print) 10.1596/978-0-8213-9768-8.
  62. Tesfaye W., Seifu L. (2016). Climate change perception and choice of adaptation strategies: Empirical evidence from smallholder farmers in east Ethiopia. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 8(2): 253-270. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2014-0017.
  63. UzHydro-Met (2018). Centre of Hydrometeorological Service, Cabinet of Ministers, 2018. Second National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Tashkent.
  64. World Bank (2018a). https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/watershed/161/climate-data-historical.
  65. World Bank Group (2021). Climate Risk Country Profile: Uganda. The World Bank Group, 36. www.worldbank.org.
  66. Xenarios S., Gafurov A., Schmidt-Vogt D., Sehring J., Manandhar S., Hergarten C., Shigaeva J., Foggin M. (2019). Climate change and adaptation of mountain societies in Central Asia: uncertainties, knowledge gaps, and data constraints. Regional Environmental Change, 19(5): 1339-1352. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1384-9.
  67. Yegbemey R.N., Yabi J.A., Tovignan S.D., Gantoli G., Haroll Kokoye S.E. (2013). Farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change under various property rights: A case study of maize farming in northern Benin (West Africa). Land Use Policy, 34: 168-175. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.03.001.
  68. Zhang C., Ren W. (2017). Complex climatic and CO2 controls on net primary productivity of temperate dryland ecosystems over central Asia during 1980-2014. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 122(9): 2356-2374. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG003781.
  69. Zhang M., Chen Y., Shen Y., Li B. (2019). Tracking climate change in Central Asia through temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 29(1): 3-28. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-019-1581-6.